Deliberations over the UN sanctions against North Korea or Iran for their nuclear programs bring to mind the League of Nations to speak before the Second World War. It was the German refusal to pay reparations a casus belli? Re-militarization of the Rhineland? Large military production? No problem just such a casus belli. Politicians mired in the details, not seeing the big picture of the coming war. Then and now.
The West has shown its impotence in the face of nuclear proliferation. China has nuclear weapons with impunity. Pakistan has received a minor slap sanctions. rulers of North Korea collapsed under the weight of sanctions, the Japanese refused to sell their melons. Sanctions against Iran would be unlikely to include oil, and even so the mullahs can do without oil for some time still rising oil price will be given to sanctions.
Ahmadinejad needs a rhetoric, not an enemy to fight. Iran will use the bomb to gain a dominant position in the Muslim world. Spells that a development of the 'axis Shiite enormous discontent in the Arab world, and the arms race. Arab states will rush to develop nuclear weapons to be on par with Iran. The Arabs know that Iran will not attack Israel with nuclear weapons, but they could also attack. The Central Asian countries are also concerned because Iran includes them within its domain. Have oil money and support Russia against Iran, and will join hands - possibly nuclear weapons - race.
Iran to provide nuclear shield Israel's enemies such as Syria or Hezbollah. When the Muslim Brotherhood is officially in power in Egypt and goes to the policy of confrontation with Israel, Iranian nuclear security will allow them to build the Egyptian army in safety. Arab Israeli nuclear umbrella strategy can only cancel military preemption. If Iran signed a mutual defense treaty with, say, Lebanon, Israel would be able to operate against Hezbollah because, technically, any Israeli incursion into Lebanon is an aggression. Lebanon would be able to conduct an undeclared war against Israel, Egypt would mobilize and move his troops in the Sinai, but Israel - Iran on nuclear protection - could not do anything.
nuclear containment is a game of nerves. Iran with nuclear warheads in Lebanon and Palestine, that Israel should do? Escalation, as Kennedy did in the missile crisis in Cuba is unlikely. Israel has lost its credibility when it did not stop the distribution of Iranian Zelzal-2 missiles in Bekaa. Iran will move its nuclear weapons in Lebanon under a mutual defense treaty, clearly a measure of protection. Any reasonable person would agree that the Iranian nuclear weapons to defend Lebanon, are not meant for aggression. Israeli government will not act, because it does not act against the Egyptians, Libyans, Algerians, Moroccans, Pakistanis, Iranians and nuclear installations. Iran would win the war of nerves. works of mutual assured destruction against tiny Israel.
With sufficiently aggressive leadership, Iran might provide nuclear umbrella to any state willing to attack Israel. Iran could threaten nuclear retaliation against Israel if we attack population centers or any enemy deep into enemy territory. Soviet Union that the approach used successfully in 1973. Has provided Egypt with SAM-5 anti-aircraft missiles to limit Israeli operations in the area earlier, and moved the missiles with nuclear warheads to prevent Israeli nuclear retaliation. Iran could use nuclear umbrella to inhibit Israeli preemption, penetrating strikes, and generally any fight on enemy territory. Without the Sinai, Israel has no territory of their own to conduct a mobile defense. Iranian nuclear capability opens the way for the Muslim world to invade Israel with conventional means.
No comments:
Post a Comment